Two seismic forces are reshaping global order at the same time. A change of this magnitude and speed has never happened before. The dominant political and economic paradigm of the past half century has been upended by what Bridgewater Associates calls Modern Mercantilism.
At the same time, Artificial Intelligence is creating a pace of technological change the world hasn’t seen in generations — and its impact is accelerating.
The world will look very different five years from now, but expert forecasters and investors are wrestling with the magnitude of what those changes will look like. This is where independent thinking and a sharp point of view come in—to find signals amid the complexity and predict what comes next.
In its second year, Forecasting the Future is a program in collaboration with Bridgewater Associates, and we invite you to dive into the evolving economic, geopolitical, and technological order, and predict what a radically different world may look like.
Who Wins? Who Loses? Do you know?
Challenge Details
For 50 years, Bridgewater has studied the cause-and-effect forces that shape economies and markets — turning that understanding into timeless and universal investment principles, systematized and stress-tested against every market cycle in history. Today, as an AI-first firm, Bridgewater is building systems designed to do the same — to find signals in complexity, stress-test assumptions, and push the boundaries of what is knowable.
The Bridgewater and Global Citizen “Forecasting the Future” Challenge invites you into this complex world, focusing on two key forces in today’s world: How Modern Mercantilism – where governments actively shape economies to boost national authority, cut trade deficits, and drive industrial growth – collides with Artificial Intelligence, which will impact every aspect of the macroeconomy and government policy.
Submissions require three parts:
- Forecasts: 10+ binary forecasts. One sentence each. Probabilities that match outcomes.
- Framework & Holistic Synthesis: Big-picture view of how AI and Modern Mercantilism shape the next decade.
- Analytical Appendix: Reasoning, evidence and analysis behind forecasts.
For more information and full details, head to Bridgewater’s webpage here.
Challenge Process
STAGE 1
SUBMIT YOUR FORECAST
Open to anyone, anywhere, 18 years or older. No finance background required.
STAGE 2
ROUNDTABLE DISCUSSION
The top forecasters are invited to a Bridgewater-hosted investor roundtable to defend their forecasts in the arena — a live, structured debate on the predictions you've made.
STAGE 3
$25K
AWARD
The top forecasters each receive a $25,000 USD award.
STAGE 4
CAREER OPPORTUNITY
Top forecasters are considered for a role or internship at Bridgewater Associates.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is eligible to participate?
When is the application due, and when will I be notified?
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Meet Last Year's Winners
Harshim S.
INDIA
Agustin C.
ARGENTINA
Azeez A.
NIGERIA
Leticia A.
BRAZIL
Nicholas H.
SOUTH AFRICA