Rwanda will hold its presidential elections in 2017. But there is a more important date coming up that has to do with the future of the country--December 17. That is when voting will begin on a referendum to amend the constitution and allow President Paul Kagame to seek a third term in office. If it passes, Kagame can remain as the head of the small central African country until 2034, essentially a lifetime presidency.
By most accounts, the amendment will garner enough support to pass. Kagame, who has been coy about his ambitions to run again will then likely announce his intention to run and easily win in 2017. Barring a sudden change from Kagame or major upheaval in Rwanda, he will remain in power for another two decades.
Major donors to the Rwandan government, like the United States, have already made clear that they oppose any changes that will allow Kagame to remain in power. The US State Department said that it is "committed to supporting a peaceful, democratic transition in 2017 to a new leader elected by the Rwandan people," in a June statement. Transitions of power have been difficult in some African countries and the issue garnered more attention recently with the bid by Burundian President Pierre Nkurunziza to run for a third term earlier this year.
Kagame and Rwanda are the darlings of the Western donor community. After failing to adequately responde to the 1994 genocide, the US, UK, France, and others have acted as strong partners for the country. The major successes in cutting poverty and mortality rates among Rwandans in the 20 years since the genocide have elevated Rwanda as an example of successful development. And Kagame has won the support of Bill Clinton, among others, for his accomplishments.
However, there are serious concerns about the way Kagame has consolidated power. His administration stands accused of supporting conflict in neighboring Democractic Republic of the Congo and carrying out political assinations. Journalists who have written critical work about the country struggle to gain entry and domestic newspapers face intimidation and restrictions on what they can report. Critics see the move to stay in office longer as un-democratic and a way to build an authoritarian regime similar to that of Ethiopia and Zimbabwe.
Whether or not Kagame runs for another term will test his relationship with Western backers. He has hinted that he will follow the will of Rwandan voters, a clever turn of phrase that dismisses the democratic term limits set by the original constitution. And the proposed changes give him the opportunity to say that limits remain, though the two five-year term limit does not take effect until 2024, allowing Kagame to remain in place through 2034.
Other heads of state will pay attention to the repercussions of Kagame's third term bid. It will also test just how much influence donors have over countries like Rwanda and if it is possible to apply pressure and incentives that support democracy.