Tomorrow, the people of Scotland will decide whether they should be an independent country or stay within the United Kingdom. The nation is completely divided, with current polls suggesting around 52% will vote no, and 48% will vote yes – it really could go either way.

As we enter the final stage of the debate, both ‘yes’ and ‘no’ campaigners are out in full force. We’ve heard debates on currency, the EU, oil, the NHS, benefits, taxation. But here at Global Citizen, our concerns and questions lie in what this means for international development, and the UK’s promise and commitment to the world’s poorest people.

The UK is one of the few countries that has kept its commitment to spend 0.7% of their budget on international development. The UK is a global leader in development and has spearheaded transformational policies and programmes overseas, saving a life every 2 minutes.

So, what would Scottish independence mean for UK international aid?      

One the positive side, Scotland has always been a great supporter of international aid. This support would continue with the new Scottish government promising to commit at least 0.7% of its budget to international aid. It has even gone so far as to say this might be legislated into law. Scotland is responsible for significant projects in countries such as India and Zambia, and the new Scottish government has pledged that these policies and projects would long continue in the case of independence.

The Department for International Development would be cut in two, meaning that the new United Kingdom (i.e. without Scotland), would lose around £1 billion in annual spending. However as mentioned above, the White Paper outlining the case for Scottish independence promises that Scotland will maintain its 0.7% commitment. This means that the £1 billion lost by the UK, will be offset by Scotland.

In the event that this overall spend is maintained, the creation of a new country and therefore a new donor, will still cause fragmentation in our current projects and spending. The current UK projects would be separated, and Scotland would have to build up their projects, relationships and reputation from scratch.

Scotland will take a few years to build up this expertise and track record and the international rules and principles to ensure the effectiveness of aid would increase the transaction costs for those countries that an independent Scotland wishes to support. The global Influence that the UK enjoys would be somewhat diminished, and Scotland would potentially (at least in the interim of setting itself up) become a much smaller player in the international system.

An independent Scotland could well become a key and transformational player in the international development sphere, however this will take time, and there isn’t any certainty on what the Scottish economy will look like if independence happens. The promise to £1 billion on international aid is 100 times more than Scotland currently contributes to aid in its own name.

The independence debate has been filled with uncertainty, and although there are huge potential benefits, there are also huge potential risks and costs. International aid could well prosper with the creation of a new Scotland, however questions loom for the future of UK aid.