There’s no shortage of jargon when it comes to understanding the fight against climate change. But one of the most important — and least catchy — acronyms to keep in mind is NDCs, or Nationally Determined Contributions.
It may sound technical, but NDCs are central to our planet’s survival. In 2025, every country that signed the Paris Agreement (which is to say, nearly all of them) is expected to submit a new or updated NDC, which means in other words, nations must deliver their plan to deliver climate action covering the next few years.
These plans will determine how quickly the world moves away from fossil fuels, cut down emissions, and whether we can keep the most catastrophic impacts of global warming at bay.
There’s a lot on the line, and the stakes could not be higher. We’re going to walk you through it — here’s everything you need to know to understand NDCs today.
The Background on NDCs
When the Paris Agreement was signed in 2015, it marked the first time nearly every country agreed to work together to limit global warming. The target: keep temperatures “well below” 2°C, while aiming for 1.5°. That difference might sound tiny, but when it comes to measuring climate change, every fraction of a degree matters. At 1.5°C, we stand a chance of preventing key ice sheets from collapsing; at 2°C, that chance could disappear, along with heatwaves intensifying, ecosystems collapsing, and crops failing. (We’ve got a full explainer on the difference a degree makes right here for you to get the full grasp of it all.)
The Paris Agreement is undeniably a landmark step forward, but its major weakness is that it isn’t legally binding. Countries set their own targets voluntarily, with no penalties for failing to meet them. Progress depends on public pressure and political will — and as anyone paying attention to politics today knows, steering everyone toward a common goal is no easy feat.
That’s where NDCs come in. While the Paris Agreement set the ambition, these plans are where rubber meets the road with concrete actions. Every five years, governments are meant to submit an updated NDC reflecting their current “highest possible ambition.” In theory, each round should raise the bar and prevent countries from sticking to business as usual.
What’s In an NDC Anyway?
To the uninitiated, NDCs might look like dry, bureaucratic documents stuffed with numbers and technical language. But they’re much more consequential than busy paperwork. They set out how a country will reduce carbon emissions — often by cutting emissions, scaling up renewable energy, cutting back on fossil fuels, or improving overall energy efficiency. They also detail how nations plan to adapt to a hotter planet by protecting communities from rising seas, bolstering agricultural resilience, and preparing health systems to handle the effects of extreme heat.
Basically it comes down to two elements: mitigation (cutting emissions) and adaptation (preparing for impacts), and these form the backbone of every NDC policy. Done right, NDCs don’t just prevent disaster, but also create a roadmap for cleaner, stronger economies. They help shape national laws and regulations, steer investment, and facilitate industries’ green transitions while getting communities the resources they need to survive. They also signal to observers that a country is serious about climate action, indicating that others should be, too.
Why 2025 Could Be a Turning Point
The first NDCs arrived in 2015, with the next round landing in 2020 and 2021 amid the upheaval of the COVID-19 pandemic. Now, in 2025, countries are entering their third cycle, and the timing couldn’t be more urgent.
The UN’s recent Global Stocktake — essentially, its report card on climate action — shows that while some progress has been made, we’re still far off track. Emissions continue to rise, and current commitments fall well short of what’s needed. Nations must urgently do more now to take their commitments to the planet seriously.
Yet glimmers of hope persist. Electric vehicle sales are soaring. Renewable energy accounted for more than 90% of new power capacity in 2024. Communities everywhere are experimenting with innovative solutions for reducing emissions. It’s far from nothing, but it’s definitively still not enough: we’re currently on track for a world that’s 3°C hotter, which will mean mass displacement, collapsing food systems, and irreversible biodiversity loss within our lifetimes.
The science is blunt. Keeping 1.5°C within reach means cutting emissions almost in half by 2030 and reducing them by 60% by 2035 compared to 2019 levels. That means that this round of NDCs are one of our last make-or-break chances to set the world on that path.
Are NDCs Currently Doing Enough?
The short answer: so far, it’s a resounding no.
Commitments made in the last round of NDCs would put the planet on course for 2.6 to 2.8°C of warming. What’s worse is that even those pledges are not being met, pushing potential warming closer to 3.1°C. This year, the original February deadline for new NDCs flew by, and most countries missed it. The UN extended the deadline to September, giving governments more time — but also raising question marks about how seriously they’re taking their climate pledges.
So far, 35 countries, accounting for about one-fifth of global emissions, have submitted their NDCs. Analysis by the think tank E3G found that most include stronger renewable targets and mention improving energy efficiency, and many also reference phasing out coal — all of which is great news. Yet very few commit to firmly moving away from oil and gas by a clear deadline, a glaring gap that puts the 1.5°C goal out of reach. Right now, only five G20 countries — which are typically among the world’s top polluters — have submitted their NDC in this round, but more are expected to share during this year’s UN General Assembly in late September.
We’ll be on the lookout to see what some big players, such as the EU, China and India, will ultimately share. That’s because ambition can span a wide spectrum. Saudi Arabia, despite being one of the sunniest places on Earth, still burns oil for most of its electricity. Meanwhile, the US — the world’s largest historic emitter — has initiated the process to withdraw from the Paris Agreement altogether. But some examples of leadership abound: Uruguay now runs almost entirely on renewables, while Portugal is rapidly expanding its renewable energy portfolio and Chile is among the fastest-growing wind and solar markets in the world. Meanwhile the UK announced a ban on new oil and gas drilling licenses as part of its plan to reach net zero carbon emissions by 2050, the first major G7 country to take such a bold step. Progress is happening, just not as far and wide as we need to see it.
What Does Ambition Actually Look Like?
So glad you asked us. At minimum, NDCs this year need to establish clear 2030 and 2035 targets that make maintaining 1.5°C possible. They should set timelines to phase out coal and fossil fuels altogether, while scaling up renewable energy at a record pace and cutting emissions across all sectors. They must strengthen adaptation measures, build resilient infrastructure, protect forests, and safeguard the food systems we all rely on.
Adequate financing is also critical, especially for developing countries. At COP29, nations pledged $300 billion annually for climate action by 2035. But that’s still a trillion short of what’s actually needed. Wealthy individuals and high-polluting industries have to pay their fair share to ensure those hit hardest by the current crisis have the resources they need to survive.
What Comes Next?
Without ambitious NDCs, the Paris Agreement risks becoming little more than empty words. They might be written by governments, but climate action is in the hands of everyday citizens and advocates, too. By demanding bold plans, pressing for renewable energy, and phasing out fossil fuels for good, we can hold leaders accountable to keep people — not polluters — their priority.
The Paris Agreement was borne out of the idea that climate action is a global undertaking. And every individual has a role to play by keeping pressure on those in power to use it wisely. One of the best ways to do that is to stay informed and keep paying attention. Follow updates on NDC submissions through platforms like World Resources Institute’s (WRI) Climate Watch and UN tracker to make sure that leaders are fulfilling their promises.
The clock is ticking. It’s time for all countries to act like it.