Who wins? Who loses? Do you know?
We are living through one of the most transformative periods in modern history – one that will produce clear winners and losers across economies, industries, and nations over the next decade.
Two seismic forces are at play here. One being what global macro investment firm Bridgewater Associates calls Modern Mercantilism, a concept described as a shift toward greater national economic self-interest – and the other – Artificial Intelligence. Experts continue to debate what changes will become reality in the long – and not-so-long – term.
For its second year in a row, Bridgewater Associates has teamed up with Global Citizen to launch Forecasting the Future: A Global Economics Challenge – inviting participants from a wide range of backgrounds to forecast who will win, who will lose.
Bridgewater is a global macro investment firm whose mission is to develop a fundamental, cause-and-effect understanding of how markets and economies work – and translate that understanding into insights, return streams, and solutions that help the world's leading institutional investors solve their most important investment challenges.
Bridgewater believes that rigorous forecasting is how the world readies itself for what comes next – not merely as an intellectual exercise. The quality of decisions made by governments, businesses, communities and individuals hinges on the quality of their foresight and the actions taken as a result. That belief sits at the heart of Bridgewater's work and this challenge.
Breaking Down Modern Mercantilism and Why it Matters
Modern Mercantilism describes a new economic era in which countries prioritize national self-interest over global cooperation – reshoring industries, restricting trade, and competing for dominance over strategic technologies like AI.
This disruption to globalization is triggering a massive realignment of supply chains, trade dynamics, and power structures – with consequences already visible today and compounding in years ahead.
How Forecasting the Future: A Global Economics Challenge Works
The Bridgewater and Global Citizen Forecasting the Future Challenge is open to anyone curious about the forces reshaping the global economy, focusing on how Modern Mercantilism and Artificial Intelligence are influencing macroeconomic conditions and public policy – developments that are already being observed across markets and economies. No finance, economics, or academic background required.
Submissions require three parts:
- Forecasts: 10+ binary forecasts with assigned probable outcomes.
- Framework & Holistic Synthesis: Big-picture view of how AI and Modern Mercantilism shape the next decade.
- Analytical Appendix: Reasoning, evidence and analysis behind your forecasts.
What Happens Next
After submission, all applications will be reviewed. The top forecasters selected by the judging panel will be invited to a roundtable by Bridgewater – a live, structured debate on your predictions. The five highest-ranked, most well-calibrated submissions will each receive a $25,000 USD reward, and the top forecasters will be considered for a role or internship at Bridgewater.
To read more about the judging process, visit Global Citizen's webpage.
Why This Matters Now
Few moments in modern economics have demanded clearer thinking than this one. As Modern Mercantilism and AI reshape global trade, geopolitical alliances and economic development, forward-looking analysis can inform better decisions during periods of rapid change.
The challenge invites those willing and interested into this very moment – with the chance to influence real decisions, engage leading investors, compete for a $25,000 USD prize and recognition through the challenge.
Applications are open now until August 1, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.
Contact
Global Citizen Media Enquiries:
media@globalcitizen.org