The first post-Brexit budget has arrived.
And, sure enough, you’re spoilt for choice with different papers and publishers falling over each other to tell you all about it. The facts remain the same, but the spin bends in different directions depending on who you talk to. Does Brexit spell success, tragedy, victory, or uncertainty? And when the Chancellor announces he'll scrap the Autumn Statement while delivering the Autumn Statement, it's difficult to know where to begin.
#AutumnStatement explained 🍂 💷
— BBC Radio 5 live (@bbc5live) November 23, 2016
📻 https://t.co/UQMSd5TKbbpic.twitter.com/6ibEKHNLE0
Comments, analysis and opinon have flown from all sides of the political spectrum, so let’s try and pick apart the policies beneath the pandemonium. Here's a run-down of the Chancellor's annoucements — and how they can be interpreted (depending on whether you're inclined to wear rose-tinted spectacles or goggles of gloom).
The National Living Wage
Essentially, this is just a minimum wage for workers over the age of 25. But it’s actually far lower than the voluntary living wage, which is based on independent calculations of the amount required to live comfortably in.the UK. The Autumn Statement has told us that it’s set to rise from £7.20 to £7.50 next April. Great news, right?
Read More: Everything You Need to Know About the Living Wage — And Why It Matters
Absolutely!
The Office for Budget Responsibility has been tasked with predicting what a British economy will look like post-Brexit. To cut the very long forecast short, the OBR is not predicting a bright future, at least in the short term. Growth is predicted to halve whilst inflation is set to rise. Therefore, it’s vital that the wages of the lowest earners, who will undoubtedly be hit hardest, will be supported.
National Living Wage to rise to £7.50 next April. Great news - a pay rise of up to £600 a year for Britain's lowest earners https://t.co/ZirJGG6arq
— ResolutionFoundation (@resfoundation) November 22, 2016
Definitely not!
The National Living Wage was first introduced by George Osborne last year. But, according to Osborne himself, it was established with the intent of rising to £9 by 2020. With the brunt of the damage from increasing uncertainty looming over the lowest-paid workers, it’s vital that they are protected, so for some observers, the hike in the National Living Wage is not as high as it should be.
Don't fall for living wage hype: rate will rise 4 per cent to £7.50 — lower than the £7.64 expected earlier this year. #AutumnStatement
— Jim Pickard (@PickardJE) November 23, 2016
Benefits
Theresa May has pledged to create a Britain that works for everyone. To pursue this, they’re reducing the "taper rate" on Universal Credit which, according to the Guardian “determines how quickly people lose benefits as they increase their hours of work.” The new policy essentially means that people won’t have money taken off them quite as quickly when they first find work. Will this help?
Of course!
With cuts both vast and wide ranging across an array of public services, any extra support must be welcomed. Although marginal, it could help ease the burden on those that need to claim Universal Credit. An estimated three million families will be keeping an extra 2p for every £1 they earn.
Hammond to announce £1bn boost to benefits in tomorrows #AutumnStatementhttps://t.co/lbQRm5WNlQ
— James Taylor (@Jamestaylor2) November 22, 2016
Why, 2016, why?!
Whilst Hammond is certainly scaling back the cuts to Universal Credit, some MPs ask whether this goes far enough. Some argue that families in need of most support will still take a big hit. To quote Lib Dem welfare spokesperson Cathy Bakewell, it’s like being “expected to thank someone who cut off your arm for giving you a sticking plaster." The analysis from Torsten Bell, below, provides another perspective:
All support for just managing families is to be welcomed but after this small tweak they will still be the big losers over next few years https://t.co/95Yiogiln7
— Torsten Bell (@TorstenBell) November 22, 2016
Here's the family impacts - single parents still lose up to £2800 from work allowance cuts while some only gain up to £200 via 2% taper cut pic.twitter.com/HTkwT7uRPl
— Torsten Bell (@TorstenBell) November 22, 2016
UK Aid
At Global Citizen, we campaign on the biggest challenges faced by the world. Since the UK aid budget is ensrhined in law at 0.7% of gross national income, the growth forecasts for the future will directly affect the good we can give to the world: the better the economy, the more lives we can impact. Hammon is committed to maintaining aid based on the proportion of the economy, which can certainly be celebrated.
You’ve made my week!
To solve the world’s biggest challenges, it’s vital to fight for fairness at home and abroad. It’s of the utmost importance that Britain remains an outward facing nation, and takes responsibility as a world leader in international development.
"We will keep our promise to the world's poorest by protecting our overseas aid budget" - @PHammondMP on the #AutumnStatement
— Global Citizen UK (@GlblCtznUK) November 23, 2016
Aid? Are you kidding me?
Some people think that foreign aid is a waste of money. Respectfully, we completely disagree. When UK aid helps save a life every two minutes, we believe that’s money worth spending.
Read More: 12 Things Achieved by UK Aid That You'll Probably Never See in the Daily Mail
Hammond confirms 0.7% aid spending retained in #AutumnStatement speech... and that's about it on international development...
— Patrick Grady (@GradySNP) November 23, 2016
Lettings Fees
Administration fees, guarantor fees, process fees, fees fees… The more money estate agents pile on top of your initial move-in costs for property rental the more the word "fees" begins to lose its meaning. The Citizen's Advice Bureau says that the average charge is £337. So surely, Hammond's proposal to ban letting fees means will mean extra money in the pockets of tenants, right?
Brilliant news!
For many, this is the flagship announcement. Letting fees are a problem that anyone who has tried to rent a property can understand. By 2025, more than half of 20-39 year olds are predicted to live in rented accommodation, so ditching letting fees is a welcome boost to working people that can’t afford to purchase property. Simple, effective, and at little cost to the government — unless you’re an estate agent, pretty much everybody wins.
In today's Autumn Statement, the government is set to announce a ban on letting agent fees. Great news for the country's millions of renters pic.twitter.com/XsqkX0Cf6u
— Shelter (@Shelter) November 23, 2016
No way!
Although it might seem simple on the surface, it’s unlikely that the cost will be shifted from tenants without a fight. Arguments against the change state that landlords could just sidestep the costs by batting it back towards tenants by increasing rents. The proposal could potentially incure dramatic consequences, especially in London.
Just paid £1800 fees to buy a house, yet as an agent I cannot charge £100 to tenants who earn just as much as me? #AutumnStatement
— Joe Beck (@Joseph83Beck) November 23, 2016
Anything Else?
Lots. Lots and lots. But here are the highlights.
A billion pound broadband boost, which means soon you might be able to download an entire series of Game of Thrones in less than a minute.
Infrastructure improvements. As per usual, more houses have been promised. How previous property promises will be kept, however, is unclear.
An extra £2 billion a year will go towards research and development, as part of a £23 billion National Productivity Investment Fund. Say goodbye to lazy Mondays.
Corporation tax will fall to 17%. Big business will continue to be looked after.
So What Does It All Mean?
Domestically, nothing has changed dramatically. Essentially, austerity will continue through the winter, but the government is taking steps to mitigate some of its toughest effects. Still, in the eyes of austerity's fiercest opponents, the news on letting fees and the National Living Wage might resemble a set of damp sparklers more than a November fireworks show.
Lower growth and higher borrowing is the real story. Remember the whole budget surplus promise the former Chancellor emphasised? That’s been abandoned, and now it’s predicted that there will be a £100 billion hole in public finances over the next five years. Many are concerned the UK will hurtle towards a public debt of £2 trillion, twice what it was when the Conservatives first took over in 2010.
Here's that inflation graphic that @bbckamal just used on our #AutumnStatement programme pic.twitter.com/PZHGx0XXNK
— DailySunday Politics (@daily_politics) November 23, 2016
A secure economy is vital for a healthy budget to solve challenges at home and abroad. We’ll have to wait and watch to work out how far today’s announcements can help stabilise the economy. In the meantime, it’s important that we, as Global Citizens, hold the government to account. The rest of the world depends on it.