In the past several days, Saudi Arabia executed a prominent Shia cleric. Iranians then stormed and burned a Saudi embassy and consulate. Saudi Arabia responded by severing all diplomatic ties to Iran, ordering all Iranian representatives to leave the country within 48 hours. Next, 3 Saudi allies--Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates and Sudan--cut ties to Iran. Throughout this back-and-forth, both countries have harshly criticized one another.

What exactly is behind this feud? Will it escalate?

Iran and Saudi Arabia are the two biggest political forces in the Middle East. Both Islamic countries, they are very conservative with oppressive gender policies and restricted speech laws.

But Iran adheres to the Shia strain of Islam and Saudi Arabia adheres to the Sunni version. Shia and Sunni differ mainly in their interpretation of what should have happened to the religion following the death of the prophet Muhammad. While similar in a lot of ways, this sectarian split is a dividing line in most of the conflicts in the region. (For a Christian comparison look to the historical and often bloody split between the Catholics and the Protestants.)

Their political goals in the region are also often at odds. Saudi Arabia is an ally of the US, while Iran regards the US as an enemy. Saudi Arabia is angered by Iran’s attempts to spread Islamic revolution to nearby countries, because any rumbles of revolution threaten the country’s absolute monarchy. Saudi Arabia is opposed to Iran achieving a nuclear weapon and supported the sanctions that were imposed on Iran. Both countries accuse the other of supporting terrorism. And they have battled one another through proxies (independent armies that they fund) in Syria, Yemen and elsewhere.

Saudi Arabia also recently underwent a political transition. King Salman bin Abdulaziz al-Saud took the throne last January and has set a tone of renewed aggression. 

Image: Almigdad Mojalli/IRIN
Saudi strike in Yemen

In Syria, Saudi Arabia is outraged by Iran’s propping up of the Assad regime (a group that is religiously “Alawite,” which is a subset of Islam akin to Shia). In Yemen, Iran is outraged by the Saudi campaign to bomb the Houthi rebels (who are Shia). Elsewhere in the Middle East, Iran has been accused of supporting insurgent groups, especially in Bahrain which is Shia-majority but ruled by a Sunni monarchy.

So there has been a low-burning resentment between the two countries for a long time.

But since the proxy battles generally involve some level of plausible deniability, neither country has taken drastic steps toward open conflict.

The recent execution of the Shia cleric Nimr al-Nimr was just the sort of publicly sanctioned aggression to send the two rivals over the edge.

Nimr al-Nimr was a prominent cleric, appreciated by Iranians, that helped foment the revolutions of the Arab spring. He has campaigned for greater freedom for the marginalized Shiites in Saudi Arabia. In 2012, the government deemed him too dangerous and imprisoned him.

His execution was seen as unjustified and an attempt to muzzle the country’s Shia minority. Leaders around the world condemned it, from the UN to the EU. Many experts believe that the execution was a way to distract the public from domestic problems by directing anger at Iran and the Shia minority. The country recently announced a deficit of $100 billion because of falling oil prices. This caused the government to cut general living subsidies that the people had grown accustomed to, potentially sparking unrest. 

Ultimately, however, the death added fuel to the fire between the two countries and could lead to greater regional instability.

What does this mean for the region in the near and long term?

Most immediately, this probably means a long intermission for the Syrian peace talks.

Last month, Saudi Arabia and Iran had finally agreed to meet with other relevant parties for the first time to discuss how the conflict could be ended.

Although they disagreed, the coming together represented a breakthrough. Now the two countries will almost certainly not meet again on this issue and Syria will descend further into chaos.

Iran will likely bolster its commitment to protecting Assad and supporting Shia militant groups throughout the region. Saudi Arabia may escalate its involvement in Yemen.

It’s hard to say if new conflicts will spawn from this dispute, but the rapid denunciations throughout the region are not good signs.

Russia is stepping up to try to broker peace between the two countries and may have some success as countries around the world are encouraging fast reconciliation.

But this overall instability will lead to more regional poverty as trade is curtailed and governments assume more militant poses. As major powers are occupied with sending tough messages, conflicts will continue to rage. And this will lead to more refugees, more hunger, more health problems, more children out of school, more gender inequality, more human rights violations and so on.

Ultimately, while the recent feud will probably not lead to a direct war or “hot war” between Iran and Saudi Arabia, it will certainly lead to more misery for everyday people.

Editorial

Demand Equity

What you need to know about the Saudi Arabia and Iran feud

By Joe McCarthy